Bitcoin Strength Shields Strategy from Risk

According to crypto analyst Willy Woo, Michael Saylor’s company, Strategy, is not likely to face any liquidation of its bitcoin holdings even if the next major bear market arrives. Woo emphasized that it would take “one hell of a sustained bear market” to force Strategy into selling its bitcoin. This statement has reassured many investors who have been closely watching the financial stability of the company amid the ongoing volatility in the crypto market.

Woo, who has long analyzed bitcoin and its market behavior, explained that Strategy’s debt mainly consists of convertible senior notes—financial instruments that allow the company to repay its obligations in cash, common stock, or a combination of both, depending on what it chooses at the time. This flexibility means that Strategy is not required to liquidate bitcoin to cover its debts unless extremely negative conditions occur.

Currently, Strategy has about $1.01 billion in debt due on September 15, 2027. According to Woo, for the company to avoid selling bitcoin to repay this debt, its stock must remain above $183.19 per share. This price level corresponds roughly to a bitcoin price of around $91,502, based on the assumption of a multiple net-asset-value ratio (mNAV) of 1. Woo highlighted that such conditions make it very unlikely that bitcoin will need to be sold by the company in the foreseeable future.

Another analyst, known as “The Bitcoin Therapist,” echoed Woo’s view, stating that bitcoin would have to perform extremely poorly for Strategy to be forced into liquidation. The analyst described that scenario as requiring “a truly brutal and prolonged bear market,” emphasizing that the company’s massive bitcoin reserves provide a significant cushion of protection. Strategy currently holds around 641,205 bitcoin, valued at approximately $64 billion. This enormous reserve shows the depth of its bitcoin commitment and underlines how deeply integrated bitcoin is into Strategy’s business model.

Despite recent challenges, including Strategy’s stock closing at a seven-month low of $246.99—down nearly 6.7%—the company remains financially strong. Bitcoin itself has fallen around 9.92% over the past seven days, trading near $101,377, yet analysts like Woo remain confident in its long-term potential. According to them, bitcoin’s current weakness is only a temporary phase within a larger cycle of growth and correction that has characterized bitcoin since its inception.

Woo also noted the possibility of a “partial liquidation” scenario. While he does not expect a full-scale liquidation during the next bear market, he acknowledged that if bitcoin fails to experience a significant rally during the anticipated 2028 bull market, partial selling of bitcoin could occur. This would only happen if bitcoin’s price does not rise quickly enough to maintain the company’s balance sheet health.

Meanwhile, several leading executives and investors continue to express long-term optimism about bitcoin’s value. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, for example, have both predicted that bitcoin could reach as high as $1 million by 2030. Such predictions highlight the growing belief that bitcoin will continue to dominate the digital asset landscape for years to come.

In summary, Woo’s analysis paints a positive picture for Strategy’s financial resilience and its bitcoin strategy. It would take an extraordinarily severe and persistent downturn to threaten the company’s bitcoin holdings. As of now, bitcoin remains at the heart of Strategy’s identity, its balance sheet, and its future vision, ensuring that even through volatility, bitcoin continues to represent strength, security, and the promise of future recovery.