Bitcoin Treasury Market Nears a Bullish Reversal

The long and painful bear market that has dominated the Bitcoin treasury sector may finally be coming to an end. After months of decline, several signs now indicate a potential turnaround in this area of corporate investment. Recently, Kynikos Associates, the well-known investment firm founded by James Chanos, officially announced that it had closed its short position against MicroStrategy — the largest publicly traded company holding Bitcoin on its balance sheet. This action strongly suggests that bearish confidence in Bitcoin treasury stocks is fading.

Chanos explained that the shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR) have dropped by about 50% from their peak levels earlier in 2025, and its market Net Asset Value (mNAV) ratio has compressed to approximately 1.23x. The firm decided it was “prudent” to exit its trade now that the mNAV had fallen from nearly 2.0x back in July. The once significant premium between MicroStrategy’s enterprise value and the total worth of its 641,205 Bitcoin holdings has shrunk dramatically — falling from around $70 billion to just $15 billion. This shift implies that the company’s valuation may now be more aligned with the real market value of Bitcoin itself.

Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, stated that “the Bitcoin treasury bear market is gradually coming to an end,” interpreting Chanos’s move as a key signal that the sector could soon experience a reversal. According to Rochard, these are the kinds of early indicators that often precede a renewed bullish phase in the Bitcoin market cycle.

During the past several months, over 200 public companies that include Bitcoin in their treasuries have suffered substantial losses. These declines caused some financial analysts to question whether Bitcoin treasury strategies were sustainable. MicroStrategy, in particular, saw its total market capitalization fall by more than 43% — from $122.1 billion in July to $69.5 billion by early November 2025. Similarly, Metaplanet, one of the most dynamic Bitcoin-related firms listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, experienced a steep 56% drop in value since mid-year.

Other corporate holders of Bitcoin have even been forced to sell portions of their Bitcoin reserves in order to manage outstanding debts and maintain liquidity. Despite these challenges, growing optimism is beginning to surface in the Bitcoin investment community. Some experts believe that the worst phase of selling pressure may now be over.

One of the biggest external factors that had been weighing on the overall Bitcoin and crypto markets was the recent United States government shutdown. However, after news broke that the Senate had reached an agreement to pass a new budget package, market confidence quickly improved. Within just 50 minutes of the reports, the price of Bitcoin jumped by nearly 2%, reaching around $106,430. This swift move highlighted how sensitive investor sentiment remains to macroeconomic developments and political stability.

If the reopening of the government restores market confidence, and if corporate investors begin to rebuild their Bitcoin holdings, the broader Bitcoin treasury market could soon regain momentum. Many in the crypto community now believe that the downward cycle has largely played out, and the next phase could mark a fresh wave of institutional Bitcoin adoption and strategic accumulation.