Bitcoin Signals Under Pressure

The recent downward movement in the price of bitcoin has affected trader sentiment and triggered shifts across several market indicators. On Friday, bitcoin continued its decline and briefly reached $103,500, which caused noticeable concern among those following bitcoin trends. One of the main signals attracting attention was the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase and prices on other major trading platforms. For the first time in several weeks, the hourly version of this index turned negative, suggesting that bitcoin on Coinbase was trading at a slight discount compared to elsewhere.

Earlier in the week, bitcoin tried to establish support around the $110,000 range. During that attempt, demand from investors in the United States pushed the premium on Coinbase as high as 0.18, which was the strongest reading since March 2024. But when bitcoin failed to hold above $110,000 on Thursday, confidence weakened. The hourly premium slipped below zero, although the daily reading stayed slightly positive. This shows that larger, long-term buyers interested in bitcoin have not fully pulled back, but their activity is under stress as market volatility grows.

Another factor influencing market behavior was the increase in taker sell volume, which climbed above $4 billion. This level of selling pointed to many market orders pushing bitcoin downward. The drop came shortly after bitcoin faced resistance near $112,370, a price aligned with the realized cost basis of short-term holders. When bitcoin is rejected around that zone, it often signals pressure on traders who recently entered the market. If the price keeps rejecting that level, bitcoin could slide closer to the $100,000 range as short-term capitulation builds.

Market watchers also noticed similarities between the current movement of bitcoin and the structure seen during the bottoming phase between March and April. At that time, sharp price wicks cleared liquidity that had formed for about a month before the price of bitcoin gradually recovered. This resemblance has created speculation that bitcoin might retest the $100,000 area without disrupting a broader long-term bullish trend, unless bitcoin breaks that range decisively and remains below it.

Technical indicators are also being tracked. The relative strength index for bitcoin has dropped to its weakest reading since April, matching a level of about 34. After bitcoin hit that RSI range earlier this year, it eventually began to recover. Another important reference is the 200-day exponential moving average, which bitcoin has mostly respected for almost six months. In a previous cycle, bitcoin held above that moving average between October and March before dropping temporarily during a consolidation period. This time, bitcoin has remained near the same type of support from April to October, and there is a possibility the price could momentarily fall under the trendline.

If bitcoin behaves like it did in the earlier pattern, the market could enter a consolidation period lasting several weeks. During the first quarter, the recovery took around 45 to 55 days, and a confirmed bottom for bitcoin only appeared in the later part of April. Applying a comparable timeline now implies that bitcoin might not show steady improvement until sometime in late November or early December. Some traders agree with this view. One market participant observed that bitcoin often bottoms around the 3-day 100 EMA during a bull run, but the process can take anywhere from 45 to 96 days before a clear turning point is seen.

Though uncertainty is present, various analysts believe that bitcoin could stabilize after the current downward move. The combination of reduced premiums, short-term pressure, major moving averages, and RSI levels is creating the impression that bitcoin may be near an accumulation zone. As traders watch these signals, bitcoin remains central in discussions about momentum, recovery timelines, and market behavior. Even with recent declines, the broader narrative around bitcoin continues to evolve based on buyer activity, liquidity shifts, and technical boundaries surrounding bitcoin performance.