Will US Governments Halt Bitcoin Reserves Expansion? Insights from Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes the United States is unlikely to increase its Bitcoin reserves beyond what it has already confiscated due to the country’s significant debt and the stereotype associated with “Bitcoin bros.” In a recent interview, Hayes expressed skepticism about the US government printing money to purchase Bitcoin, especially since the country is heavily in deficit. He explained that the only possibility for a strategic reserve would be not selling the Bitcoin seized from individuals, which currently amounts to around 200,000 BTC. Hayes also questioned whether any elected official would openly declare plans to print money to buy Bitcoin, considering the popular image of Bitcoin enthusiasts partying in nightclubs.

In March, President Donald Trump signed an order to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve in the US, which currently holds about 198,000 BTC worth over $18 billion, primarily seized from criminal cases like Silk Road and Bitfinex hacks. Many industry leaders believe that if the US begins actively buying Bitcoin, it could trigger a competitive rush among countries to acquire more of the digital asset. Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch, warned that smaller countries might struggle to keep up in such a scenario, and the US could lead a global race for Bitcoin ownership.

Hayes remains optimistic that the pattern of Bitcoin’s dominance leading into altcoin season will mirror 2021’s cycle. He expects Bitcoin dominance to return to around 70%, similar to pre-2021 levels, and believes that markets will see rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins during bullish periods. Currently, Bitcoin’s market dominance is approximately 64.78%, an increase from below 60% at the start of the year, suggesting a potential resurgence in Bitcoin’s market share. However, some analysts doubt Bitcoin dominance will reach 70%, with predictions favoring a level around 60%, noting that the traditional asset rotation indicator for altcoin season is now outdated.